Stock Market - Observations.

1.Sensex has been making lower tops and lower bottoms since Feb first week, after making a top at 14700 LEVEL OR SO.

2.Budget has delivered a decisive blow to the bullish sentiment AND NOW BULLS ARE REELING UNDER VINDICTIVE LOOKING BUDGET PROVISIONS .These sam e bulls had earlier seemed invincible and were on a rampage.

3.Sentiment is also shattered due to several IPOs which were issued at very high levels and now are quoting much lower.

4.5 DAY Chart shows that there is not a single higher top even in the short run.

5. 3Month SENSEX chart shows that SENSEX has gone bolow 100DMA and is now near 200 DMA. This level may soon be touched.

6. 6 Month chart also shows the same thing.SENSEX IS below 10 dma and 100 dma AND IS PRECARIOUSLY POISED TO REACH 200 DMA.

7. The 10 dma and 100 dma are almost touching. This is like a critical point from where the indices might bounce back or might go under.This is to be seen.

Overall the market seems oversold and might have a bounce back for a day or two.But that is it.There is UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR REVERSAL OF THE TREND IN THE MARKET AND DOWNTREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE.

Therefore it is recommended that if there is even a small bounce ( means 100 or 200 sensex point rise) just sell ALL YOUR SHARES.

Commodity prices are falling and demand is shrinking.USA which is one of the biggest markets for everyone in the world is probably going to enter a period of recession, A big blow to the bullish sentiment.

Rupee is getting stronger making our exports costlier and imports cheaper. Stronger rupee is also not beneficial for the SOFTWARE sector.

Political situation is very fluid and ruling party is likely to be destabilised due to losses in elections and disputes with partners.

International situation is precarious since USA MIGHT START A WAR WITH IRAN ANY TIME.

TERRORISM situation is likely to escalate in INDIA making it tense.

If the market goes higher SELL SHORT. Dont worry if the market is falling.A falling market is a cause for worry only for DIE HARD BULLS. Bears are rubbing their hands in glee , having tasted the BLOOD OF BULLS and now bears are poised to destroy them into the dust.

See how you feel when the market goes up and you sell and collect the cash.You will feel even better if you go short and then MAKE MONEY WHEN THE MARKET FALLS FURTHER.So friends dont despair if you have seen the market falling.It will fall after a relentless rise.Sell on every rise.Market might give you a bounce of about 500 points in the next few days.

This makes it quite clear that market will be in a bearish trend for a while and might shed a few thousand points in sensex and a few hundred points in NIFTY.

Sell and wait for an opportune time to buy back.DONT BE IN A HURRY TO BUY SINCE THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK FOR AT LEAST 8 WEEKS.