--
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
View on Nifty (30/11/2011)
Dear all,
Spot Nifty broke the support level of 4760, however it is managing to trade above the same. Traders are advised with caution below 4760, as it could lead to further fall in the index to the minimum of 4710 and could extend to 4675.
A firm trade above 4770 could try testing 4800 mark and could extend to 4840.
With GDP numbers for the day volatility is needless to say. More shake out trades are possible for the day.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
India’s growth rate expected to dip below 7%
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
MUMBAI (MarketWatch) — India's growth is forecast to have slowed in
the three months ended in September, slipping below 7% for the first
time in more than two years and adding pressure on the central bank to
end its 18-month-long campaign to fight inflation.
"The downside risks to growth are rising very fast," says D.K. Joshi,
chief economist at the ratings firm CRISIL in Mumbai.
India's gross-domestic-product figures, due to be released Wednesday,
are expected to show growth of 6.9% from the year-earlier quarter,
according to the average forecast of economists polled by Dow Jones
Newswires. That's down sharply from 7.7% growth in the previous
quarter and 8.9% growth in the year-earlier quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India has hiked interest rates 13 times since
March 2010 to curb excess demand and stem inflation, which remains
above 9%. But other factors, namely the crisis in Europe and slower
growth in the U.S., are now also fueling investment uncertainty and
curbing demand for Indian-made goods.
"We'd had good growth in exports, but now that's slowing down," Joshi said.
Growth in the services sector, forecast at 9% year-on-year, remains
the main factor supporting growth, along with agriculture, where
growth of 2.6% is expected, according to Religare Capital Markets.
Most of the slowdown is expected to come from industrial production,
where growth fell more than expected in September, led by lower
manufacturing and electricity production, as well as mining, which has
also been hit by land acquisition and weather-related issues.
Growth in durable consumer goods, such as televisions, did, however,
get a bounce for India's Diwali festival in late October, according to
HSBC.
But there was a plunge in the sales and production of cars in October,
partly due to a strike at Maruti Suzuki Ltd., and as consumers reacted
to rising fuel costs.
"The high levels of inflation over the last couple of years and
subsequent hike in the interest rates are likely to have taken their
toll on domestic consumption and investments, more so on the latter,"
said Jay Shankar, chief economist at Religare.
In October, India's central bank lowered its growth forecast for the
year ending in March to 7.6% from 8%, citing the impact of monetary
tightening and the weakening growth momentum in the U.S. and the euro
zone.
The RBI also signaled a pause in monetary tightening was likely at its
December meeting.
But wholesale inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 9.7% in
October, with the 18% slide in the rupee since July sharply raising
costs for India's imports, especially oil. "The exchange rate is
making imports expensive," said CRISIL's Joshi. "So it's balancing out
the impact on inflation from slowing growth.
"But I believe the demand-side pressures will subside, and food
inflation has also shown positive signs," he said. "So [the RBI] will
definitely be on pause and wait to see what happens."
Other central banks in Asia have already either paused their
monetary-policy tightening or begun cutting interest rates.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecast for the whole of
Asia for this year and next, citing risks to growth from Europe and
the U.S.
--
MUMBAI (MarketWatch) — India's growth is forecast to have slowed in
the three months ended in September, slipping below 7% for the first
time in more than two years and adding pressure on the central bank to
end its 18-month-long campaign to fight inflation.
"The downside risks to growth are rising very fast," says D.K. Joshi,
chief economist at the ratings firm CRISIL in Mumbai.
India's gross-domestic-product figures, due to be released Wednesday,
are expected to show growth of 6.9% from the year-earlier quarter,
according to the average forecast of economists polled by Dow Jones
Newswires. That's down sharply from 7.7% growth in the previous
quarter and 8.9% growth in the year-earlier quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India has hiked interest rates 13 times since
March 2010 to curb excess demand and stem inflation, which remains
above 9%. But other factors, namely the crisis in Europe and slower
growth in the U.S., are now also fueling investment uncertainty and
curbing demand for Indian-made goods.
"We'd had good growth in exports, but now that's slowing down," Joshi said.
Growth in the services sector, forecast at 9% year-on-year, remains
the main factor supporting growth, along with agriculture, where
growth of 2.6% is expected, according to Religare Capital Markets.
Most of the slowdown is expected to come from industrial production,
where growth fell more than expected in September, led by lower
manufacturing and electricity production, as well as mining, which has
also been hit by land acquisition and weather-related issues.
Growth in durable consumer goods, such as televisions, did, however,
get a bounce for India's Diwali festival in late October, according to
HSBC.
But there was a plunge in the sales and production of cars in October,
partly due to a strike at Maruti Suzuki Ltd., and as consumers reacted
to rising fuel costs.
"The high levels of inflation over the last couple of years and
subsequent hike in the interest rates are likely to have taken their
toll on domestic consumption and investments, more so on the latter,"
said Jay Shankar, chief economist at Religare.
In October, India's central bank lowered its growth forecast for the
year ending in March to 7.6% from 8%, citing the impact of monetary
tightening and the weakening growth momentum in the U.S. and the euro
zone.
The RBI also signaled a pause in monetary tightening was likely at its
December meeting.
But wholesale inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 9.7% in
October, with the 18% slide in the rupee since July sharply raising
costs for India's imports, especially oil. "The exchange rate is
making imports expensive," said CRISIL's Joshi. "So it's balancing out
the impact on inflation from slowing growth.
"But I believe the demand-side pressures will subside, and food
inflation has also shown positive signs," he said. "So [the RBI] will
definitely be on pause and wait to see what happens."
Other central banks in Asia have already either paused their
monetary-policy tightening or begun cutting interest rates.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecast for the whole of
Asia for this year and next, citing risks to growth from Europe and
the U.S.
--
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Monday, November 28, 2011
MARKET OUTLOOK
Dear all,
Bank Nifty is holding to the levels of 8650 and above the same the index can try testing 9300 levels.
We expect Banks, Metals and Mid caps to show good performance in the short pull back rally.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Thursday, November 24, 2011
View on Nifty
Dear Investor,
Some facts about present correction
- As of now we are not in a bear run...As you can see in the chart (pointer),nifty is trying to retrace to 50% of the rally which started from 2009 and lasted till 11-dec 11....Nifty rallied almost 4000 points from its low..So now it is trying to retrace and this should end some where around 4450..(if we put filter then maximum upto 4368....In my mind it should not go below that....
- Everyone has been talking about filling 2009 Gap..(circuit day)...I have attached nifty chart which clearly shows there is NO GAP.....Bulls managed to keep nifty opening in such a way that there is no Gap left..So there is no question of filling up this Gap....
- We should not be bullish until and unless the falling trend line is breached.....Falling trend line is given in the chart and we are still in a down trend..Until and unless that line is broken we should not be bullish....
There is always a fear near a bottom and i feel that is a case at present...Nifty can bounce back from here and can again go and touch 4450 but that should be the end of this correction...
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
OUTLOOK OF THE MARKET
Dear All,
Spot Nifty has broken the support of 4760 and the index is trading below the same level. We suggest to close the longs, as trading below 4760 can lead to further fall in the index to the minimum of 4720 - 4680. Only short covering can now help the index to close above 4830, where the probability is going lesser.
Spot Nifty has broken the support of 4760 and the index is trading below the same level. We suggest to close the longs, as trading below 4760 can lead to further fall in the index to the minimum of 4720 - 4680. Only short covering can now help the index to close above 4830, where the probability is going lesser.
With traditional indicators trading at the very lowest levels, the reversal should happen shortly, however due to the F&O expiry volatility remains higher, where more shake outs could be seen. There is no meaning in holding to the longs of current month contract if reversal occurs post expiry. Even long roll over to December contracts are in the comfort zone as Nifty is trading below 4760.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Friday, November 18, 2011
Nifty short term and dec view
Dear All,
We feel today the quantum of calls being bought in Nov 4900 and 5000 is more than the one being bought in 4800 put.the break even of the previous call writing comes at 4980 on spot,i.e 4900 strike + around 80 rs average price of call writing.Give or take 15 odd rs on this premium for the 5day time value 4960 odd on spot is where fresh shorts can come in.Today for the first time we seeing fresh short rolls in Nifty.So call buying can be a hedge as well for this short rolls.Nifty had already rolled around 19% yesterday.Bank Nifty for the first time has added around 2.59Lacs in a single day since may be last 18 months.Though it is nt completely short rolls.The average price on Nifty spot where these short scan roll sis around 5035 on Nifty spot.
Just for information,The ratio of CNX DEFTY to Nifty since say last 4yrs is in a range of around 1.15 -1.5.
March 2009 it was at 1.47 when Nifty bottomed at 2975 levels.The level was 1.15 on July 2011 when Nifty was at 5600 and the rupee was at 43.8.we are cureently at around 1.44
Ideally FII behaviour depends on USDINR,VWAP(annual Volume weighted average price)
)and Historical VOlatilty in Nifty.The 10 day HV of Nifty nose dived from 20 level s to 10.3 in a single day on 11th Nov and we saw Nifty correcting from 5200 odd levels.This usually happens once or twice a Year.VIX might find a resistance ta 29.10 odd which is around 50 DMA as well.
With markets entering Rollover days we feel every levels will be used to roll so around 4780-4900 will have series of supports,needless to say the Open interest in Bank Nifty is at Highest(around 18months high) and Nifty is at 5month high.High Open interest usually is a positive indication though i would not jump the gun n say that,as high participation in Derivatives evolves in anticipation of Huge cash based activity as well.So rupee at 51.80 odd should be the weakest values of UDSINR for this Calender year possibly.If all this data hold true we should be seeing around 5400 in Nifty by Dec 25th Dec 2011.The bottom in Nifty should not be below 4720-4750 in this case.
We feel today the quantum of calls being bought in Nov 4900 and 5000 is more than the one being bought in 4800 put.the break even of the previous call writing comes at 4980 on spot,i.e 4900 strike + around 80 rs average price of call writing.Give or take 15 odd rs on this premium for the 5day time value 4960 odd on spot is where fresh shorts can come in.Today for the first time we seeing fresh short rolls in Nifty.So call buying can be a hedge as well for this short rolls.Nifty had already rolled around 19% yesterday.Bank Nifty for the first time has added around 2.59Lacs in a single day since may be last 18 months.Though it is nt completely short rolls.The average price on Nifty spot where these short scan roll sis around 5035 on Nifty spot.
Just for information,The ratio of CNX DEFTY to Nifty since say last 4yrs is in a range of around 1.15 -1.5.
March 2009 it was at 1.47 when Nifty bottomed at 2975 levels.The level was 1.15 on July 2011 when Nifty was at 5600 and the rupee was at 43.8.we are cureently at around 1.44
Ideally FII behaviour depends on USDINR,VWAP(annual Volume weighted average price)
)and Historical VOlatilty in Nifty.The 10 day HV of Nifty nose dived from 20 level s to 10.3 in a single day on 11th Nov and we saw Nifty correcting from 5200 odd levels.This usually happens once or twice a Year.VIX might find a resistance ta 29.10 odd which is around 50 DMA as well.
With markets entering Rollover days we feel every levels will be used to roll so around 4780-4900 will have series of supports,needless to say the Open interest in Bank Nifty is at Highest(around 18months high) and Nifty is at 5month high.High Open interest usually is a positive indication though i would not jump the gun n say that,as high participation in Derivatives evolves in anticipation of Huge cash based activity as well.So rupee at 51.80 odd should be the weakest values of UDSINR for this Calender year possibly.If all this data hold true we should be seeing around 5400 in Nifty by Dec 25th Dec 2011.The bottom in Nifty should not be below 4720-4750 in this case.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Try to catch few stocks at lower level..........Rohit saxena
Dear All,
As per the Market sentiments, Market again give us a chance to catch those stocks which will grow as per the index or out performer in few months. So i recommend you few stocks with major support are as given below (S1 = Sipport levels) :-
(1)- Axis Bank S1- 976, (2) Aban S1- 368Rs, (3) Apollo Tyres S1- 52Rs, (4) Ashok Leyland S1- 22Rs,
(5)- Bharti S1- 372Rs, (6) Bhel S1- 288Rs, (7) GSPL S1- 87Rs, (8) HDFC Bank S1- 419Rs, (9) Hindalco S1- 109Rs
(10) Hindustan Unilever S1- 372Rs, (11) HindZinc S1- 105Rs, (12) ICICI Bank S1- 720Rs, (13) IDFC S1- 105Rs
(14) IGL S1- 395Rs, (15) Infosys S1- 2518, (16) ITC S1- 200, (17) JSW Ispat S1- 8.90Rs, (18) LIC housing S1- 197Rs.
(19) L&T S1- 1180Rs, (20) M&M S1- 695Rs, (21) Manappuram S1- 47Rs, (22) Maruti S1- 918, (23) ONGC S1- 247Rs
(24) Petronet S1- 148Rs, (25) PFC S1- 127Rs, (26) PNB S1- 855Rs, (27) Power Grid S1- 92Rs, (28) Recl S1- 147Rs
(29) Reliance S1- 760Rs, (30) SesaGoa S1- 170Rs, (31) Siemens S1- 720Rs, (32) SouthBank S1- 17Rs,
(33) SRF S1- 290Rs, (34) SunPharma S1- 472Rs, (35) Suzlon S1- 25Rs, (36) TataMotors S1-145Rs
(37) TataSteel S1- 375Rs, (38) TimeTechnoPlast S1- 48Rs, (39) Titan S1- 188Rs, (40) UcoBank S1- 57Rs.
(41) Voltas S1- 75Rs, (42) YesBank S1- 245Rs.
S1 means support level, with the help of support levels you will input the money at every fall and make average at different-2 levels which helps you to buildup the strong portfolio for the future.
In above stocks i am not suggest any Realestate and Infrastructure stocks because still i am not make Position in this segment from 2008 fall to till date. And as per the news big players bet on Real Estate and Infrastructure Stock but Every stock make a lower level in this market. Some one take a chance in this sector then go with DLF S1- 170Rs, HDIL S1-58Rs.
Note:- As per the Sentiments, these levels are expected only thats why make average at Different-2 level to Support level are as given above.
Best Of Luck
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Update : Go with IGL.......Stock on the Way......Rohit Saxena
Indraprastha Gas Ltd
BSE: 532514 | NSE: IGL | ISIN: INE203G01019
Market Cap: [Rs.Cr.] 6,018 | Face Value: [Rs.] 10
Industry: Miscellaneous
429.8511.05 (2.6%)
428.908.50 (2.0%)
| BSE | Nov 11,00:00 |
| Day's High | Low | 431.70 | 415.00 |
| Day's Volumes | 148,735 |
| 52Wk High | Low | 453.25 | 285.10 |
| Open Price | 418.00 |
| Turnover | 63,029,093.00 |
| Deliverable Vol. | 85,873 |
| 6 Mth. Avg. Vol. | 112,624.75 |
| NSE | Nov 11,00:00 |
| Day's High | Low | 431.80 | 415.00 |
| Day's Volumes | 375,333 |
| 52Wk High | Low | 454.00 | 285.00 |
| Open Price | 416.30 |
| Turnover | 160,563,678.75 |
| Deliverable Vol. | 277,732 |
| 6 Mth. Avg. Vol. | 135,893.45 |
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
View on Market Trendz
Dear all,
Spot Nifty took a support at 5150 levels and gave a quick bounce where it tests the day's high. 5220 will now be a tough resistance for Nifty to break, as it needs a high positive trigger for the same (that could be the IIP data today, though not sure). The trend is short term negative unless Nifty trades above 5220. Defensive Play on in the market with Pharma and FMCG showing positive movements. Rest all is negative, Sugar is still a good bet and one could expect more positive flows into the sector.
Cements that were silently positive is turning weaker with momentum and one could see few more down side on the same.
We suggest traders to revise their SL for long positions @ 5200 on Spot Nifty.
In case of Nifty breaching 5150, the trend will be little more weak wherein the possibility of Nifty testing 5000 levels will be increasing. We expect a range bound movement in Nifty in the range of 5150 - 5300 for quite some more time. In broader view the range will be 5000 - 5400 till Nov 21st as per TMC.
Avoid bottom fishing in Banks unless you have a valid reason for any buy. Just do not go because of the falling prices. Auto is turning weaker and you could see a little more fall in the sector with stock specific corrections.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Go with United Breweries Ltd........Rohit Saxena
Dear All,
Go with United Breweries Ltd. Cmp 403Rs (buy between 395Rs to 404Rs) Short term target R1- 424Rs, R2- 445Rs, and R3- 464Rs. (Stoploss 388Rs Strictly follow)
--
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Moody's downgraded Indian banking system from stable to negative,this morning.....source bloomberg
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Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Update : Go with IGL.......Rohit Saxena
Dear All,
IGL Cmp 418Rs, todays High and opening price was 422Rs, total return 5.5% from 17th Oct to till date , Stock is still performing, So i suggest you book partial profit in IGL and carry on partial holding for the target of 457Rs. and suppose stock will reach again 409 level then again buy IGL.
Thanks and Regards
Rohit Saxena
Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." Rohit Saxena
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