MARKET OUTLOOK

Dear all,

Spot Nifty managed to open above 4760 and is holding for the first 15 mins. Holding above the same will take the index gradually to 4930 - 5030, with the first resistance at 4830. However, we need to wait for the first half of the day for the confirmation of nifty holding above 4760, in such case we suggest traders to close all their shorts and build up long positions for trading, with the stop loss of 4760 on closing basis. 

Bank Nifty is holding to the levels of 8650 and above the same the index can try testing 9300 levels. 

We expect Banks, Metals and Mid caps to show good performance in the short pull back rally. 

Thanks and Regards 
 
Rohit Saxena

Phone No: 09899365905
Mail Id: simmi9sep@gmail.com

Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." 

              

View on Nifty

Dear Investor,

Some facts  about present correction

• As of now we are not in a bear run...As you can see in the chart (pointer),nifty is trying to retrace to 50% of the rally which started from 2009 and lasted till 11-dec 11....Nifty rallied almost 4000 points from its low..So now it is trying to retrace and this should end some where around 4450..(if we put filter then maximum upto 4368....In my mind it should not go below that....
• Everyone has been talking about filling 2009 Gap..(circuit day)...I have attached nifty chart which clearly shows there is NO GAP.....Bulls managed to keep nifty opening in such a way that there is no Gap left..So there is no question of filling up this Gap....
• We should not be bullish until and unless the falling trend line is breached.....Falling trend line is given in the chart and we are still in a down trend..Until and unless that line is broken we should not be bullish....

There is always a fear near a bottom and i feel that is a case at present...Nifty can bounce back from here and can again go and touch 4450 but that should be the end of this correction...

Thanks and Regards 
 
Rohit Saxena

Phone No: 09899365905
Mail Id: simmi9sep@gmail.com

Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." 

              

OUTLOOK OF THE MARKET

Dear All,

Spot Nifty has broken the support of 4760 and the index is trading below the same level. We suggest to close the longs, as trading below 4760 can lead to further fall in the index to the minimum of 4720 - 4680. Only short covering can now help the index to close above 4830, where the probability is going lesser. 

With traditional indicators trading at the very lowest levels, the reversal should happen shortly, however due to the F&O expiry volatility remains higher, where more shake outs could be seen. There is no meaning in holding to the longs of current month contract if reversal occurs post expiry. Even long roll over to December contracts are in the comfort zone as Nifty is trading below 4760.

 

Thanks and Regards 
 
Rohit Saxena

Phone No: 09899365905
Mail Id: simmi9sep@gmail.com

Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." 

              

Nifty short term and dec view

Dear All,

We feel today the quantum of calls being bought in Nov 4900 and 5000 is more than the one being bought in 4800 put.the break even of the previous call writing comes at 4980 on spot,i.e 4900 strike + around 80 rs average price of call writing.Give or take 15 odd rs on this premium for the 5day time value 4960 odd on spot is where fresh shorts can come in.Today for the first time we seeing fresh short rolls in Nifty.So call buying can be a hedge as well for this short rolls.Nifty had already rolled around 19% yesterday.Bank Nifty for the first time has added around 2.59Lacs in a single day since may be last 18 months.Though it is nt completely short rolls.The average price on Nifty spot where these short scan roll sis around 5035 on Nifty spot.

Just for information,The ratio of CNX DEFTY to Nifty since say last 4yrs is in a range of around 1.15 -1.5.
March 2009 it was at 1.47 when Nifty bottomed at 2975 levels.The level was 1.15 on July 2011 when Nifty was at 5600 and the rupee was at 43.8.we are cureently at around 1.44
Ideally FII behaviour depends on USDINR,VWAP(annual Volume weighted average price)
)and Historical VOlatilty in Nifty.The 10 day HV of Nifty nose dived from 20 level s to 10.3 in a single day on 11th Nov and we saw Nifty correcting from 5200 odd levels.This usually happens once or twice  a Year.VIX might find a resistance ta 29.10 odd which is around 50 DMA as well.
With markets entering Rollover days we feel every levels will be used to roll so around 4780-4900 will have series of supports,needless to say the Open interest in Bank Nifty is at Highest(around 18months high) and Nifty is at 5month high.High Open interest usually is a positive indication though i would not jump the gun n say that,as high participation in Derivatives evolves in anticipation of Huge cash based activity as well.So rupee at 51.80 odd should be the weakest values of UDSINR for this Calender year possibly.If all this data hold true we should be seeing around 5400 in Nifty by Dec 25th Dec 2011.The bottom in Nifty should not be below 4720-4750 in this case.

 

Thanks and Regards 
 
Rohit Saxena

Phone No: 09899365905
Mail Id: simmi9sep@gmail.com

Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible." 

              

Try to catch few stocks at lower level..........Rohit saxena

Dear All,

 

 

As per the Market sentiments, Market again give us a chance to catch those stocks which will grow as per the index or out performer in few months. So i recommend you few stocks with major support are as given below  (S1 = Sipport levels) :-

 

(1)- Axis Bank  S1- 976,  (2) Aban S1- 368Rs,  (3) Apollo Tyres S1- 52Rs, (4) Ashok Leyland S1- 22Rs,

 

(5)- Bharti S1- 372Rs, (6) Bhel S1- 288Rs, (7) GSPL S1- 87Rs, (8) HDFC Bank S1- 419Rs, (9) Hindalco S1- 109Rs

 

(10) Hindustan Unilever S1- 372Rs, (11) HindZinc S1- 105Rs, (12) ICICI Bank S1- 720Rs, (13) IDFC S1- 105Rs

 

(14) IGL S1- 395Rs, (15) Infosys S1- 2518, (16) ITC S1- 200, (17) JSW Ispat S1- 8.90Rs, (18) LIC housing S1- 197Rs.

 

(19) L&T  S1- 1180Rs, (20) M&M S1- 695Rs, (21) Manappuram S1- 47Rs, (22) Maruti S1- 918, (23) ONGC S1- 247Rs

 

(24) Petronet S1- 148Rs, (25) PFC S1- 127Rs, (26) PNB S1- 855Rs, (27) Power Grid S1- 92Rs, (28) Recl S1- 147Rs

 

(29) Reliance S1- 760Rs, (30) SesaGoa S1- 170Rs, (31) Siemens S1- 720Rs, (32) SouthBank S1- 17Rs,

 

(33) SRF S1- 290Rs, (34) SunPharma S1- 472Rs, (35) Suzlon S1- 25Rs, (36) TataMotors S1-145Rs

 

(37) TataSteel S1- 375Rs, (38) TimeTechnoPlast S1- 48Rs,  (39) Titan S1- 188Rs, (40) UcoBank S1- 57Rs.

 

(41) Voltas S1- 75Rs, (42) YesBank S1- 245Rs.

 

S1 means support level, with the help of support levels you will input the money at every fall and make average at different-2 levels which helps you to buildup the strong portfolio for the future.

In above stocks i am not suggest any Realestate and Infrastructure stocks because still i am not make Position in this segment from 2008 fall to till date. And as per the news big players bet on Real Estate and Infrastructure Stock but Every stock make a lower level in this market. Some one take a chance in this sector then go with DLF S1- 170Rs, HDIL S1-58Rs.

 

 

Note:- As per the Sentiments, these levels are expected only thats why make average at Different-2 level to Support level are as given above.

 

 

 

Best Of Luck

 

 

Thanks and Regards 
 
Rohit Saxena

Phone No: 09899365905
Mail Id: simmi9sep@gmail.com

Losers say it is hard and impossible, but winners say it is hard but not impossible."