Now the market is at lower level, but the indian corporate growth stories is continuing, so what do you feel, is it the right time to invest into the market & is it the right time to avarage the portfolio? please give me you views.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Is it the Right time to invest into stack market?
Hi All,
Now the market is at lower level, but the indian corporate growth stories is continuing, so what do you feel, is it the right time to invest into the market & is it the right time to avarage the portfolio? please give me you views.
Now the market is at lower level, but the indian corporate growth stories is continuing, so what do you feel, is it the right time to invest into the market & is it the right time to avarage the portfolio? please give me you views.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Expect market weakness to continue -- HARESH SONEJI
“The market looks weak, a bounceback is expected and the benchmark indices may end flat.” That’s what we said last week. And look at the Nifty position.
Heavy volatility persisted, but the Nifty closed around 8 points in the positive, compared to the previous week’s close. And from the state of affairs in the equity market, things continue to look weak. The 14% correction in the equity market may have hurt many an investor.
More correction may be expected. Contrary to what the market thinks, open interest in stock futures is down by hardly 10% compared to selloffs witnessed during previous falls. So, unwinding pressure was limited.
What does this suggest? Maybe it’s a sign of caution. In the May ’06 correction, F&O unwinding was to the tune of 50% and more. Maybe, this will lead to another round of correction. According to technical charts, a bounceback was expected.
But then, statements from the government stopped the bulls from gaining any more territory. Expect more action on Monday, when the government is scheduled to release Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for January. Common signals thrown from the F&O segment seem to be running haywire.
The putcall ratio (PCR) seems to rise on one day and drop the other. The discount to the spot seems to change arbitrarily. There seems to be no consistency in such numbers. It’s best to avoid such statistics at this point in time. You never know what may happen. Remember, how smooth things looked just ahead of the Budget in the F&O charts?
And then suddenly, everything changed overnight. So, depending on them seems to be futile at this point in time.
As far as your positions are concerned, some relief was witnessed during the week. But nobody wanted to take chances. It is time to book losses in your March Nifty positions, which are bleeding.
That’s where 50% of your losses are coming from. Use an upmove to exit this position. Also, events ahead don’t look too good. For instance, there may be some more liquidity tightening at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, scheduled this week.
So, global markets may enter the weak domain. Sell off your April futures, which are making money for you at this point in time. You will always get it lower.
It’s time to do some covering up on the individual stock futures. Buy Reliance and Satyam put options. Based on Friday’s closing price, Reliance 1290 March PA was available around Rs 20.
Satyam 420 March PA was available at around Rs 8. This will help hedge your positions. Fresh positions, at best, can be avoided for another week.
Heavy volatility persisted, but the Nifty closed around 8 points in the positive, compared to the previous week’s close. And from the state of affairs in the equity market, things continue to look weak. The 14% correction in the equity market may have hurt many an investor.
More correction may be expected. Contrary to what the market thinks, open interest in stock futures is down by hardly 10% compared to selloffs witnessed during previous falls. So, unwinding pressure was limited.
What does this suggest? Maybe it’s a sign of caution. In the May ’06 correction, F&O unwinding was to the tune of 50% and more. Maybe, this will lead to another round of correction. According to technical charts, a bounceback was expected.
But then, statements from the government stopped the bulls from gaining any more territory. Expect more action on Monday, when the government is scheduled to release Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for January. Common signals thrown from the F&O segment seem to be running haywire.
The putcall ratio (PCR) seems to rise on one day and drop the other. The discount to the spot seems to change arbitrarily. There seems to be no consistency in such numbers. It’s best to avoid such statistics at this point in time. You never know what may happen. Remember, how smooth things looked just ahead of the Budget in the F&O charts?
And then suddenly, everything changed overnight. So, depending on them seems to be futile at this point in time.
As far as your positions are concerned, some relief was witnessed during the week. But nobody wanted to take chances. It is time to book losses in your March Nifty positions, which are bleeding.
That’s where 50% of your losses are coming from. Use an upmove to exit this position. Also, events ahead don’t look too good. For instance, there may be some more liquidity tightening at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, scheduled this week.
So, global markets may enter the weak domain. Sell off your April futures, which are making money for you at this point in time. You will always get it lower.
It’s time to do some covering up on the individual stock futures. Buy Reliance and Satyam put options. Based on Friday’s closing price, Reliance 1290 March PA was available around Rs 20.
Satyam 420 March PA was available at around Rs 8. This will help hedge your positions. Fresh positions, at best, can be avoided for another week.
Volatility ahead, time to stay with sound cos -- SHAILESH MENON
Equity markets are in for a turbulent ride this week with future triggers dependant on issues like global liquidity concerns , residual effect of yen-carry trade and domestic inflation.
Investors are jittery after intermittent contradictory rallies last week; any adverse news or events, especially in the wake of the US economy note and Japanese economy note to be released this week, will further destabilise the market, say market participants.
Market opened marginally high today despite expectations of peek global markets.
Barring Singapore’s Straits Times, Kospi and Hang Seng, most overseas markets ended with losses last week. The US and Japanese markets also put up a no-show. The Nikkei market was down 0.31% for the week ended March 9. The benchmark index, BSE Sensex , ended the week with a marginal loss of 1.13 points at 12884.99. The broad-based NSE Nifty shed 8.75 points over the previous week’s close to settle at 3,718.
According to Amitabh Chakraborty, president - equities, Religare Securities, “The market is likely to remain volatile. As such investors should only go for companies that have sound fundamentals.”
“The market may have ended lower on Friday; but it appears to be on a rebound path. We are seeing some buying in Nifty, which can be considered a positive sign,’’ he added. While most analysts are maintaining a cautious outlook, there appears to be a glimmer of hope on assumptions of good advance tax collection figures (to come out on March 15) and bountiful quarter four earnings. However, an element of caution does remain .
“The market should be volatile in the coming week. We are bound to see some heavy upswings and down covering in the days to come. Indian markets will move on taking cues from the global bourses. The fact of the matter is that international markets will only stabilise when there is clarity on issues like yen-carry trade, global liquidity and US slowdown,’’ said Sai Tampi, head - PMS, HSBC Asset Management.
On the domestic front, inflation and rising interest rates would continue to be a cause for concern. Counting out all these negative factors, the India growth story is still intact. This will help the markets to do well once cloud of uncertainty moves away, Mr Tampi added.
“The volatility factor should be there till the next quarter. As far as foreign inflows are concerned, FIIs are likely to remain in cash for some more time. They would only be interested in investing in a market that has adjusted volatility,” said Amrish Baliga, vice-president , ICICI Securities . According to analysts, sectors like hotels, hospitality, power and tourism look good in current market conditions. Reliance Industries, Bharti, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, IDFC and M&M are said to be good buys at lower levels.
However, the fact remains that the market is still heavily loaded with outstanding positions, which is a cause of concern. Summing it up aptly, an Edelweiss Capital report says, “With such a sharp correction, there will be substantial positions already making huge losses. On the other hand, any further fall could force these weak positions to exit, thereby starting the process of unwinding. In any case, we may see more correction in the market till a point where all the weak hands are out of the market.”
Note:
DRIVERS OF THE WEEK
Experts feel the market appears to be on a rebound path
Analysts expect the market to be volatile in the coming week
They feel global markets will stabilise if there’s clarity on issues like yen-carry trade
Investors are jittery after intermittent contradictory rallies last week; any adverse news or events, especially in the wake of the US economy note and Japanese economy note to be released this week, will further destabilise the market, say market participants.
Market opened marginally high today despite expectations of peek global markets.
Barring Singapore’s Straits Times, Kospi and Hang Seng, most overseas markets ended with losses last week. The US and Japanese markets also put up a no-show. The Nikkei market was down 0.31% for the week ended March 9. The benchmark index, BSE Sensex , ended the week with a marginal loss of 1.13 points at 12884.99. The broad-based NSE Nifty shed 8.75 points over the previous week’s close to settle at 3,718.
According to Amitabh Chakraborty, president - equities, Religare Securities, “The market is likely to remain volatile. As such investors should only go for companies that have sound fundamentals.”
“The market may have ended lower on Friday; but it appears to be on a rebound path. We are seeing some buying in Nifty, which can be considered a positive sign,’’ he added. While most analysts are maintaining a cautious outlook, there appears to be a glimmer of hope on assumptions of good advance tax collection figures (to come out on March 15) and bountiful quarter four earnings. However, an element of caution does remain .
“The market should be volatile in the coming week. We are bound to see some heavy upswings and down covering in the days to come. Indian markets will move on taking cues from the global bourses. The fact of the matter is that international markets will only stabilise when there is clarity on issues like yen-carry trade, global liquidity and US slowdown,’’ said Sai Tampi, head - PMS, HSBC Asset Management.
On the domestic front, inflation and rising interest rates would continue to be a cause for concern. Counting out all these negative factors, the India growth story is still intact. This will help the markets to do well once cloud of uncertainty moves away, Mr Tampi added.
“The volatility factor should be there till the next quarter. As far as foreign inflows are concerned, FIIs are likely to remain in cash for some more time. They would only be interested in investing in a market that has adjusted volatility,” said Amrish Baliga, vice-president , ICICI Securities . According to analysts, sectors like hotels, hospitality, power and tourism look good in current market conditions. Reliance Industries, Bharti, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, IDFC and M&M are said to be good buys at lower levels.
However, the fact remains that the market is still heavily loaded with outstanding positions, which is a cause of concern. Summing it up aptly, an Edelweiss Capital report says, “With such a sharp correction, there will be substantial positions already making huge losses. On the other hand, any further fall could force these weak positions to exit, thereby starting the process of unwinding. In any case, we may see more correction in the market till a point where all the weak hands are out of the market.”
Note:
DRIVERS OF THE WEEK
Experts feel the market appears to be on a rebound path
Analysts expect the market to be volatile in the coming week
They feel global markets will stabilise if there’s clarity on issues like yen-carry trade
Monday, March 5, 2007
Stock Market - Observations.
1.Sensex has been making lower tops and lower bottoms since Feb first week, after making a top at 14700 LEVEL OR SO.
2.Budget has delivered a decisive blow to the bullish sentiment AND NOW BULLS ARE REELING UNDER VINDICTIVE LOOKING BUDGET PROVISIONS .These sam e bulls had earlier seemed invincible and were on a rampage.
3.Sentiment is also shattered due to several IPOs which were issued at very high levels and now are quoting much lower.
4.5 DAY Chart shows that there is not a single higher top even in the short run.
5. 3Month SENSEX chart shows that SENSEX has gone bolow 100DMA and is now near 200 DMA. This level may soon be touched.
6. 6 Month chart also shows the same thing.SENSEX IS below 10 dma and 100 dma AND IS PRECARIOUSLY POISED TO REACH 200 DMA.
7. The 10 dma and 100 dma are almost touching. This is like a critical point from where the indices might bounce back or might go under.This is to be seen.
Overall the market seems oversold and might have a bounce back for a day or two.But that is it.There is UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR REVERSAL OF THE TREND IN THE MARKET AND DOWNTREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE.
Therefore it is recommended that if there is even a small bounce ( means 100 or 200 sensex point rise) just sell ALL YOUR SHARES.
Commodity prices are falling and demand is shrinking.USA which is one of the biggest markets for everyone in the world is probably going to enter a period of recession, A big blow to the bullish sentiment.
Rupee is getting stronger making our exports costlier and imports cheaper. Stronger rupee is also not beneficial for the SOFTWARE sector.
Political situation is very fluid and ruling party is likely to be destabilised due to losses in elections and disputes with partners.
International situation is precarious since USA MIGHT START A WAR WITH IRAN ANY TIME.
TERRORISM situation is likely to escalate in INDIA making it tense.
If the market goes higher SELL SHORT. Dont worry if the market is falling.A falling market is a cause for worry only for DIE HARD BULLS. Bears are rubbing their hands in glee , having tasted the BLOOD OF BULLS and now bears are poised to destroy them into the dust.
See how you feel when the market goes up and you sell and collect the cash.You will feel even better if you go short and then MAKE MONEY WHEN THE MARKET FALLS FURTHER.So friends dont despair if you have seen the market falling.It will fall after a relentless rise.Sell on every rise.Market might give you a bounce of about 500 points in the next few days.
This makes it quite clear that market will be in a bearish trend for a while and might shed a few thousand points in sensex and a few hundred points in NIFTY.
Sell and wait for an opportune time to buy back.DONT BE IN A HURRY TO BUY SINCE THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK FOR AT LEAST 8 WEEKS.
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